Mark's Trading Journal

[makaro]

2007-11-07 EURJPY Limit Sell at 167.40

Looking at shorting @ 167.40 (Limit Sell), for 166.70 with stops at 167.75.

Basically daily charts with long running double top. Looking for a fresh attempt of resistances (tops) at 167.70 to be rejected. Play the sideways market developing in the second top. Note H4 charts showing pair is well resisted, hourly MACD and RSI with sell signals. using limit for better pricing and risk/reward.

Remarks: We never quite saw that second attempt of resistances leaving limit sells untouched. On hindsight we should have used a secondary trigger out of the minor uptrend line from Nov 5 lows.

[makaro]

We started the Asian Session with an either or scenario in 15 min charts ... inverted head and shoulder in a wider time frame or possible double top in the more immediate bars.

H4 charts with a buy in RSI's waiting for a buy in MACD.
H1 charts both buy signals from RSI and MACD
M15 charts telling us not break higher just yet.

As such we decided to look for a break of the declining neckline as signal for the upside. Using TrendMeLeaveMe with entry 10 points above the break out TP set at 40pips (theoretically potential was for further 110 points) SL at 30pips.

Remarks: Got tired of waiting for prices to hit TP covered early prices actually reached theoretical targets.

Lesson: If you're trigger happy, satisfy part of your need to book profits by liquidating half of your position and let the other half run for targets.

[makaro]

Overall view for the EURUSD looking bearish following failure to make a second attempt for 1.5000 and the break of our aggressive bullish trendline. Indicators however suggests a bubble forming in MACD Daily (need to correct) while intraday we had buys off hourly RSI and MACD suggesting better pricing for shorts is possible. 15 minute charts however had an ascending triangle at the open of the Asian session in LTR which proved too attractive to pass up as a quick hit and run trade.

Break out-point was 1.4670, Theoretical target was at 1.4710 though Fib 23.6 and chart points at 1.4704 suggests cover before that. Stops should be at hypotenuse of the triangle.

[makaro]

Reaction to the Fed annoucement yesterday was dissappointing with the USD firming despite the rate cut. EURUSD as such dropped to a Fib 50 Retracement level, bouncing off it then trading sideways through most of the Asian session. Arguments for the upside however remain, daily charts stil say we have an upswing based on RSI's and trend lines, stochastics still at a buy, and MACD just flattening at the approach of zero line. Moving to hourly charts we saw buy signals off stochs, rsi's, and macd and found an intraday resistance at 1.4667. Using that as a trigger break out calls for going long target a return to pre FOMC ranging levels (blue box) , with a minimum objective of 1.4703.

[makaro]

Friday�s sell-off in EURUSD has triggered an SHS pattern in the daily charts with theoretical targets at 1.4092. Currently prices are working just above the middle line of our bullish regression channel with intraday chart�s calling for some pull back in our decline. As such we can come up with three possible scenarios:

Aggressive Trade: Given the call for a pull back from our intraday charts we can use the minor resistance at 1.4451 as a trigger for going long expecting a pullback to 1.4530, the neckline of our SHS pattern that corresponds with Fib 38.2 retracement of the sell-off Thursday, a classic text book example of an SHS. Insurance policy here is a stop a 1.4400 with a tight trail stop suggested.

Conservative Trade: A more conservative way of trading the pattern is to wait for a pullback to the neckline and consider shorting at the approach of 1.4530. This should be the choice of a conservative trader theoretical target being 1.4092 though a more immediate would be a retest of the lows seen in the initial phase of the break out, 1.4402. If planning to take the long view stops should be at 1.4750 though a nearer 1.4580/90 acceptable.

Shallow Pull-Back: Should 1.4451 hold or a false/slow break of the level occurs then we consider a break of the lows at 1.4402 as a trigger for shorting. For short term targets we have Fib 38.2 retracement at 1.4354 and Fib 50 retracement at 1.4163. Insurance police for such a trade is a stop at 1.4451.

[makaro]

Hi guys someone was asking for a record of calls done during my sessions unfortunately I don't exactly trade all of them. I think we need to stick to just one or two trades at any single time. Also I am more of a discretionary trader, what does that mean? I don't exactly trade based solely on signals given me by charts at every time but follow charts/fundies/and different setups. Contrast to something like Johan's system which you could define as a systematic trading system.

In anycase below are the trades taken for the last 31 days since date of print for a high leverage account. This means I am willing to take 1:50 ratios between my running balance and the notional amount traded, my more aggresively/actively traded account.

Implied is one big mistake could wipe this out.

regards,

Mark

[makaro]

Opps Tiff not accepted. Heres the file.