Nader's Trading Journal

[Nader Moustafa]

2007-07-06, 08:31 EST - USD/CHF Short, Multiple trades (+32, +34, +23)

Now trading 1.2216

-On daily charts a significant resistance @ 1.2227 and a 200MA @ 1.2256 are seen.
-On the 15min 61.8 fib. Of the drop from 1.2338 / 2071 is at 1.2233 as well as 200MA @ 1.2214.
-We assume a rise to 1.2232 level (61.8) and we'll short from there with a tight stop @ 1.2255,with an open target.

Note:
Because we might not have the chance to short at that nearby level we'll short now.

7/6/2007 08:31:01 Short @ 1.2216
7/6/2007 08:34:49 Short @ 1.2225 (3 Lots)
7/6/2007 08:48:02 Short @ 1.2232

All positions Stop @ 1.2255

[Nader Moustafa]

On the 1Hr charts,price failed to close below the 38.2 level of the previously mentioned fib. at 1.2170,and managed to close the hour @ 1.2178.

So positions were closed as follows:

1 7/6/2007 10:12:46 @ 1.2177 +32
2 7/6/2007 09:43:32 @ 1.2197 +23
3 7/6/2007 09:09:30 @ 1.2190 +35

Note:
Best action was to close IMMEDIATELY on the hour close @ 78 (20-27pips more than our actual close)

[Nader Moustafa]

On daily/4Hr chart a clean close above the falling trendline connecting 124.12 high and 123.52 is seen.

On the 15 min chart,a close above the 61.8 level of the fib. from 123.55 to 123.09 ,and above the rising trendline has triggered our long position @ 123.32.

Stop is 123.20 below the "Mid-Channel". Check 15min chart Pls.

Target is 123.55 at the upper channel of the rise. if hourlies fail to close above 123.55 we'll short from there,If not we will go long on a sustained break and close above 123.58 ON HOURLIES.

Note:

1-A failure on hourlies to penetrate that level will create classical double top.If this happens,a 3 lot Short position would be a good idea.
2-We might as well not take profit and push the stop to 123.41 and risk for a break targeting 123.75 / 82

[Nader Moustafa]

21.33 EST

Now trading 123.56 and looking good,stop moved to 123.41
Target 123.74

[Nader Moustafa]

Stop was hit @ 123.45 , profit was only 13 pips.
down 10 pips from original target.

Ideally should've closed at the multiple failures @ 123.67 for 35 pips

[Nader Moustafa]

After a significant JPY strength across the board & towards the end of US session today,EUR/JPY chart suggested strongly a Short position if 4Hr candle close below trend line (3),which happened.

Positioning info as follows:

Trade open:

- 7/10/2007 12:07 Short @ 167.57 Stop @ 167.87
- 7/10/2007 10:48 Short @ 167.39 Stop @ 167.87

Trade Close:

- 7/10/2007 17:47 2 positions @ 167.00 (57pips * 2)
- 7/10/2007 17:48 1 Position @ 166.95 (44pips)

At the first touch of the trend line 4,price bounced back rapidly triggering a long positions preset to enter at that level ,with a reasonable target that was met few minutes later.

Trade open:

-7/10/2007 17:47 Long 167.90

Trade Close:

-7/10/2007 17:52 @ 167.19 (29pips)

[Nader Moustafa]

Based on the assumption that our main (orange) trend lines are still valid,once 1Hr closed above the 'potential' falling red line & also above lower-most orange line we entered Long,initial target is to flat on failure @ the intercepting falling blue line (see chart pls.) and we'll re-Long a good dip OR if 4Hr close above the blue line.

Trade open :

- 7/11/2007 05:02 Long @ 167.06 Stop @ 167.92

Trade close :

- 7/11/2007 06:45 @ 167.39

Note:

Ideally should've been closed at blue line precisely for 6 more pips ,no big deal tho.

[Nader Moustafa]

As mentioned in the previous EUR/JPY post,our condition got fulfilled and a clean confident break of the blue line took place,so we went long with 4 lots targeting the second orange line.


Trade Open:

- 7/11/2007 08:37 Long @ 167.52 4 lots.

Trade Close:

- 7/11/2007 08:59 Closed @ 167.77 +25 pips *4 = 100 pips

Again as of our analysis and modeling,we didn't leave any positions open ,and we reversed to Short as price was rejected.
Since Short is counter-trend,we will exit @ first failure to dig deeper.

[Nader Moustafa]

We reversed as our channel top was hit ,and as planned,we flattened the position for 16 pips.

Trade Open:

- 7/11/2007 09:00 Short @ 167.78

Close:

- 7/11/2007 09:24 @ 167.62

A sustained close on the channel top promotes another long position

[Nader Moustafa]

Opened the week with a gap,and good resistance very nearby @ 1.3843.,We're short as of this level hold,stop and reverse on a close above.

Humble target @ 1.3811 as uptrend is passing here,so it might bounce of it.
Ideal target would be 1.3783 first good support.

Trade Open:

- 7/22/2007 17:38 Short @ 1.3838 , Stop @ 1.3865 , Target : 1.3811

Trade Close:

- 7/23/2007 05:35 Flat @ 1.3811 (original target)