Gbp/Usd long - Gartley setup
14.6.07: 13.00GMT Gbp/Usd – Long: Entry -1.9676; Stop – 1.9655; Target 1.9820. Comments: Observed a Bullish Gartley pattern on the 1Hr time frame, and trade was taken based on this pattern.
The calculated target of this pattern was 1.9850, but we set an earlier target and the trade was completed successfully. R: R ratio - We had a profit of 144 points for a risk of only 21 points.
The Gartley pattern usually has a very high R: R ratio, and for this trade the R: R ratio was almost 1: 7.
18.6.07: 09.25GMT Eur/Aud Long: Entry -1.5894; Stop 1.5845; Targets 1.5950 / 1.6050 Comments: Using the Top-Down approach, we noticed that the swing low (1.5773) formed previously on the 4Hr time frame could be a turning point, as it coincided with a Fib projection target. (Plot the Fib projections on the 4Hr chart on the upward retracement from the swing low of 1.6211 on 14th May 07, to the swing high of 1.6474 on 29th May 07. The Fib projection of 261.8 is 1.5785)
Since we expected price to have an upward movement, we shifted to the lower time frame of 1Hr, and plotted a bullish Andrews Pitchfork. This gave us the 2 targets of the Central Median line of 1.5950, and the Upper Median line of 1.6050.
When we observed that price has found resistance at the Central Median line, it was an indication that the uptrend could be losing momentum.
Hence we closed the trade at 1.5930. R: R ratio - We had a profit of 36 points for a risk of 49 points.
The R: R ratio for the secondary target was 1:3, but since we closed the trade at the initial target, for this trade the R: R ratio was less than 1: 1.
18.6.07: 11.09GMT Nzd/Usd Long: Entry -0.7555; Stop 0.7527; Target 0.7590 Comments: Took the long trade based on only a bullish Andrewss pitchfork on the 15min. Price has broken the Central median line upwards, and our expectation was that it had a very probability to reach the Upper Median line, which was our target.
We took a loss on this one, as price consolidated for quite some time, and turned down.
We closed the trade as soon as price broke the Lower Median line of our bullish APF, and exited before our stop level. Hence we closed the trade at 0.7534, taking a loss of 21 points. R: R ratio -
We had an expected profit of 35 points for a risk of 27 points, which gave us a decent R: R ratio of over 1:1.
18.6.07: Setup Eur/Gbp Potential Long: Expected up move after a pullback
Expected Entry -0.6765; Stop 0.6730; Targets 0.6810 and beyond. Comments: Using the Top-Down approach, we noticed that the 4Hr was showing a Bullish Regular divergence. Based on this we plotted a bullish APF on the 4Hr, and estimated that price would continue to a previous high of 0.6806 (on 8th June 07).
Our entry would have been a break of a trend line, and even though price did rally to our entry point, we decided against entering the trade since we also observed a Bearish Hidden divergence on the 4Hr.
Right now, we have kept it under observation since it is giving mixed signals, and will analyze it only after some definite patterns have emerged. R: R ratio -
We had an expected profit of minimum 45 points for a risk of 35 points.
18.6.07: Setup Aud/Cad Potential Long: Expected up move after a pullback
Expected Entry -0.8970; Stop 0.8940; Targets 0.9085 and beyond. Comments: Using the Top-Down approach, we are eventually looking for a long trade on the 4Hr up to 0.9075.
We arrived at this level, as we plotted the Fib retracements on the last down wave - from the swing high of 0.9281 (11th May 07) to the swing low of 0.8742 (30th May 07)
Price seems to correcting up in an ABC pattern, which indicates that the 61.8 Fib retracement (at 0.9070) is a likely target.
To look for a correct entry into this uptrend, we plotted a bullish APF on the 1Hr.
Since price had already broken the Central Median line of the bullish APF, the minimum expected target should be the Upper Median line at 0.9085, which coincides with the 61.8 Fib level.
Since price was quite over extended on the 1Hr, we are waiting for a pullback to app. 0.8970 to enter a long trade.
But price did not pullback to our level, hence we have not yet entered the long trade. R: R ratio -
We had an expected profit of minimum 115 points for a risk of 30 points.
Note: On a larger pattern, price seems to be forming a Bearish Hidden Divergence on the daily chart, and we will be keeping this under observation for a short tradewith a large profit potential.
19.6.07: 10.45GMT Usd/Jpy Short: Entry -123.59; Stop 123.70; Targets 123.35 Comments: This trade was taken on the intra day Daily Pivots strategy. The Momentum Value indicator was indicating short trades on the Jpy, and we waited till price came up to a pivot level to find resistance.
We also used the APF to confirm the entry and target, and it was a perfect trade. R: R ratio - We had a profit of 24 points for a risk of 11 points.
This gave us a good R: R ratio of over 1:2. Note: Enclosed is the chart of this trade.
Gbp/Usd long - "Power Hour - Gbp breakout" strategy
19.6.07: 10.00GMT Gbp/Usd Long: Entry -1.9840; Stop 1.9820; Targets 1.9879 / 1.9892 Comments: This trade was based on the Power Hour Gbp breakout strategy.
The calculated targets of this pattern were 1.9879 & 1.9892, but price did not go beyond the initial target. R: R ratio - We had a profit of 39 points for a risk of 20 points.
This gave us a good R: R ratio of 1:2. Note: We have been long on this pair right since we had traded the Gartley pattern on 14th June. It also seems to be in a bullish Elliot wave 3 with a larger target objective of app. 1.9960. Enclosed are the charts of the Gartley pattern, and also the bullish Elliot wave on the same price movement.
19.6.07: Setup Usd/Chf Potential Short: Comments: We were anticipating a short trade, as we observed a bearish hidden divergence on the 1Hr.
But somehow price movement was too erratic, and we decided to stay out.
20.6.07: 20.12GMT Usd/Chf long: Entry -1.2376; Stop 1.2345; Targets 1.2445 / 1.2469 Comments: Using the Top-Down approach, we noticed a bullish regular divergence on the 4Hr in the making, along with a bullish Hidden Divergence also at the same time. It was a very powerful indication of a change to the uptrend, and we waited almost for the entire day for price to find a bottom. (In the process, did we lose out on a short trade - of appr.35 points wellmaybe, but the general opinion was that the upcoming long trade was worth the wait.)
We estimated the end of the downtrend by using Fib projections, and price indeed found support at exactly the 1.618 projection.
The end of the downtrend was further confirmed by a Railway Tracks reversal pattern on the 1Hr.
We took a long trade based on these 2 factors, and again used the Fib projections to estimate the targets.
The trade has gone in our favor, and we will be following it up subsequently. R: R ratio - We have an expected profit of 124 points for a risk of 31 points.
This gave us an excellent R: R ratio of 1:4. Note: Enclosed is the chart of this trade.
It was a very talented setup, but I am not in this trade.
I have missed the timing and now,the day after it ha s already 80 pips win the that is going further. Such a setup can nobody signal, but Sunil.I have tested already a lot of strategies, but his is the best
Sunil's Trading Journal
Eur/Aud Long - Top-Down approach
Nzd/Usd Long - APF setup
Eur/Gbp - potential long setup
Aud/Cad - potential long setup
Usd/Chf long - divergence setup
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