Becoming a Master at Forkology

[FiboLoki]

Hello Future Forkologist! Welcome to my thread.

It seems that most traders have little or no real understanding of the Andrew's Pitchfork technique for trading and as I use it religiously to find my accuracy at close to 90% - I thought I would attempt to share my knowledge and findings in hope of helping others that find using strictly indicator based methods of TA less then successful.

Trading various systems in my quest to find a method of analysis that I could wrap my head around I've practiced and studied most. However I am a visual person with my own gifts being in the recognition of patterns and sequences.

Down a long path I happened on this incredible technique that has forever changed my own methodology and increased my confidence beyond measure. And Confidence in your trading system is the first key to success in my opinion, so you need to start with a system that will work for you.

I use a combination of AP methodology as well as Fib levels and Elliot Wave theory.

These 3 'Geometric' Techniques give me the structure of the price action on any level or time frame.

Which method I use and what combination depends on whether it is a ranging market or a trending market. I don't believe there is a All in One that can do it all. I need two methods - however they are a crossover of the same disciplines.

To this I add a number of indicators as well, Fractals being the primary one, to designate reversal points on the AP structure and some of the more advanced reversal indicators.

Depending on the market I sometime have one page that is just all Technicals on the Pair and one window that is just Geometrics.

The combination of which I would classify as Forkology.

Here is the first BASIC primer (the general how to) video (there is no sound - its not your computer - sorry):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTtqsmCqMhQ&fmt=18

And for those seeking the Holy Grail of Master's Degree in Forkology - Here is your text book. It is a comprehensive APforkology reference that outline the rules and probabilities for price failures and reversals.

You'll find the abbreviated text below - I decided to remove the studies and extra crap no one will read anyway.

[r326196]

thks for yr thread. Awaiting Holy Grail of Master's Degree in Forkology

[Joe-B]

Hi FiboLoki. Looks like a good tutorial on Andrews Pitchfork, but I could get no audio. Other items on Youtube had audio. Am I unique in this problem/
Joe B

[FiboLoki]

Sorry, but there isn't any audio on that video. I've tried to find one as simple and straight forward, however they are all 'silent' movies. lol But a good primer.

I'm uploading the APForkology Manual to Eugene so it should be available shortly.

Just as another great example of this method is the picture below. At the top fractal at 1.5720 I knew that upon rejection it would be shorting all the way to the 'Gray' median you see there. (Euroexample1)

Someone trading this under another method would probably have been confused by the stall at that gray median line, which is projected from June 5th!

You can see how the old median lines create all the 'Triangles' and 'wedges' that we wait to see a breakout from.

If you leave all the medians you draw you literally get a profile of the entire wave move for move. However this method (which I used to employ) is too difficult to examine as the chart becomes increasingly dense with blackout.

So I often employ a Larger Time Scale, Medium TS, STS ...if you get my methodology.

(example2)

Usually I analyze from the Yearly down, as I have found Yearly Median as well as Monthly to be extremely powerful = if you come up against one 20 years later it will still hold.

I have an example of a Median from 1979 that topped a rally to the PIP just a month ago! That is Amazing to me! Which is what began my intensive study of this lost and ancient art form. And it is an Art form because you have to develop not only a 'feel' for the rhythm of the waves but experience will teach you to know exactly how to place and track your price movement.

It does take practice and there is a learning curve like all things, however I have found that it out preforms Woodies CCI and other more 'failsafe' methods as I have ALL the price history and a intrinsic map of the entire life of the pair.

For added fun I often test my Fibonacci levels against the APs and find that the Medians often bisect the exact point the price WILL target. As apposed to following price action as a lagging indicator - APForkology is a PREDICTIVE indicator with very accurate and historical reversal and pivot points as well as profit targets.

The simplest method has an accuracy of over 80% in my experience - just on the AP Basic method. Add to that a comprehensive knowledge of the APForkology 101 I'm about to lay on you and you'll have all the tools to create a system based around this backbone that works best for you.

I use several charts as I stated. I like (1) pure technicals - Stochs, MacD, RSI, QQE, all the pertinent ones for trend strength and direction. (2) Is my Macro LTS Chart which is only APs and Fibs (this is where I identify Elliot Waves as well). And finally I use a (3)rd chart for entries and exits on the 5M and 1M chart that gives me a clear view of my ST AP trades. So I don't have any distractions on tight scalping.

Usually I don't enter into trades unless I have an agreement between all 3 charts. Which is quite frequent. When I see all line up beautiful (and you'll learn this) its like a day a Disney World!

What has given me even more confidence in this system is I recently traded the NFP Report which appeared to knock the crap out of a lot of speculative traders.

I walked though the minute to minute News release taking 180 of the 230 pip move down without sacrificing a single pip. I knew exactly where price was headed and where it would reverse (even where it would stall).

I've never traded a News release with such confidence and I did the entire event with nothing more than a single AP fork that I kept adjusting as each move completed.

It was spectacular and completely re-enforced my passion to learn more about this amazing methodology.

So I'm sharing what I've learned and hope to open a dialog here with anyone interested in, or currently employing, this technique. As I appear to be the only one.

The Manual for our group is coming ....promise.

PS The last image you can see how the price bounce again off that 'phantom' median from June 5th and returned to the Upper Median. Its like a no-brainier now...I am definitely a fan of this method.

(eample3)

PSPS - Yes, I'm a chart junkie, I admit it. What? lol

I've also included an example of the Elliot wave that was the second in a series. There are matching Twin Elliot waves on the GbpUsd as well. So I've been trading them both successfully for over a week now.

What I enjoy about this method is that there is rarely if ever a conflict. The Elliot Waves marry the Fib Levels and the APforks Frame the entire picture with Periods and Commas. Sometime Exclamation points!

However as you see it makes for a very reliable and stable trading system - at least for me. And I'm happy to share it with anyone looking for an alternative to strictly indicator based strategies as those rarely have more than a 50/50 success rate for me personally. With this method I'm about 95% accurate, with only the occasional glitches caused by anomalies in the market itself (however once again...the APForkology will incorporate those spikes and commit them to price history).

[FiboLoki]

Alright, I discovered if I cut out all the studies and what have you that I could reduce the APForkology Method into a very condense manual. So check the First Post to down load the APForkology 101.pdf and enjoy.

[FiboLoki]

Here is yet another great trade that I was watching and making while on the phone.

As the Price didn't make it too the Center Median, I knew to draw what is equivilant to a Schiff Median (where you just use the New Low rather than the rejection off the Median Line.

As you see by the Schiff Median that price retraced to the New Median and rejected, which happens about 90% of the time. A short here would have been the 2nd available while I yakked on the phone at 9:00 PM USA EST.

You could sit here all day and trade breakouts this way.

Just another amazing example of APForkology.

[FiboLoki]

A good example of using APForkology on the 1 minute chart. I narrowed it down to the 1 minute entry, as you see I use the Daily Pivots (though the price action follows the AP more accurately) and I would apply Fib Levels on the retracements if it were a higher time frame.

Noice how all the elements line up to signal the sweet short?

I am using AP, Pivots, Fractal Indicator, Stochs, MacD on this particular 1 Minute chart and is all I really need. Once broken, I'll re-adjust the 'Live' Fork (which is what I use on 1M or 5M to keep them from becoming too cluttered. You just track along eating popcorn and picking up the pips as they fall off the Forkology Tree.

[Renshi]

Hey Fiboloki, good stuff mate, I am following along with interest. I must admit, only just started looking at it and I am a little lost but that will come in time.

I am a little concerned for you though, your last post said you were "tracing along eating pipcorn" ? mate, do you eat a 1 t0 3 ration of pop corn per lot? or are the mini pop corn? Make sure you walk off all those calories (not that I can talk either) lol

nah good stuff mate. keep it up.

Always good to see different methods that have been proven and work. There are so many ways to skin this cat. chat soon

Renshi

[FiboLoki]

A current look at a move during the Opening of the US session.

[FiboLoki]

Here is a close up on the drop on GbpUsd.