Hello fellow traders,
I get a lot of questions concerning my methods and techniques for TA that often differ from the norm considerably. What I have discovered in my research and self education in the area of TA is that there are several devices and tools available that have an uncanny accuracy.
The most popular of which is the Fib Levels, which most would concede have an amazing accuracy as well.
Another tool that is often overlooked, mainly due to a lack of understanding I think, that has even more powerful accuracy than any device I have uncovered thus far.
Here is and explaination of my Andrew's PitchFork Technique as well as the historical examples that I will be continuing to explore in the future as I encounter more opportunities to share 'hidden' resisence and 'support' not seen by the traditional methods.
This is mainly due to the fact that the APs (Andrew's Pitchforks) are created by the price action itself - so it creates its own historical memory which is imprinted on the Major to the Minor Wave Structure.
And now I'll attempt to demonstrate what I'm talking about here. This mostly arises due to my awareness of resistance levels that others can't see and are confused by, or 'phantom support'. You'll see it is the long term trend boundries of projections made years in the past towards years in the future. It is what I find so fascinating about the technique and the device. Let us begin...at the begining.
Looking at the GbpUsd through the Forks in the Road
Alright, let us start here with the Gbp/Usd. Here, amazingly enough is the first example of what I'm speaking. You'll see in this Monthly chart (yes Monthly) that over the entire life of the currency as mapped already has a Master AP in place.
See Fig 1.
This AP extends from 1979 to the present. You'll see it becomes the back bone of the structure of the wave and sets the pattern down to the second if you like. Its a beautiful Fractal quality of the device.
TIP: The trick to APs is that there isn't a set point to use, sometimes the points are missing because they haven't been created yet. You'll find that by moving the APs around based on ONE specific High or Low, that you can find the Support turned Resistance line that bisects the wave pattern.
In Fig 2.
you can see a mess of APs I threw on the Macro Wave (Still on the Yearly here remember) You can see almost immediately how the price action bounces through the APs almost like a jungle gym, but with a fairly predictable path.
Fig. 2a and 2b Gives a detail for you to look at.
Now bear in mind that APs are meant to be Dynamic, so you can move them around and there are more than just one set of points that work. If you filled every point you'd get an exact map to 80+% accuracy, however you can't read the thing for all the lines. So, just swing breaks is what I look for and allow the Probability Studies and Indicators to do the rest.
And as you drop down in Time frames, you'll have to readjust your AP points as they will be off on the Macros.
Here is also a great example of seeing where the price action is truncated by the APs.
The AP ranges the price, which spends 80% of its time at the central Median. The LM and UM (Lower and Upper Medians) are the Range of the entire move, so you get a distillation of the overall action to about 80+% accuracy if you can find the correct AP for your targets. There is usually only ONE. So you'll know if you find it. IT DOES TAKE SOME PRACTICE! lol
You can see in the last three pictures how I had to move the AP around to find the "KEY" as it fit the horizonal for swing caps, but there was a better AP angle as you see in the last picture how it tells you where the trend is going to rebound off a AP Support line or Resistance. They are extremely strong, as you can see. They control movement over decades - so they have significant meaning. However I find most traders over look this to their detrement. Knowing they exist helps avoid stalling or those 'phantom reversals' that make no sense. You usually discover that there was a AP that Sliced right through your Swing and clipped it. As we saw in the Euro the other day.
Within these structures I then use Fib retracements and Elliot Wave theory (the later being new) as these too are all 'Organic' methods of projecting price movement rather than predicting it. All in concert together I get fairly accurate reads like a news paper everyday. The only 'stories' I have to watch out for are the Fundies that will upset the rythm of the market and price action, but the AP's will always reign in those spikes and includes them in its overall historical path. Fibs cement the fractal quality of this method and marry well with little to no conflict like indicators often give.
Here are the Elliots, Nader actually made me re-evaluate my original thought that the new Wave 1 was a smaller complete Elliot (but I think only a Fractal of the larger wave now).
So I have restructured to the larger Elliot of the Monthly charts.
However, using the APs - Fibs and Probability I hope this will lay a nice road map to plan my trading everyday. Long term understanding of the Macro move, down to the Fractal Mini moves of the minute to minute chart. All these devices add to confirm the price action and you can see future targets and exits based on the AP medians.
I hope this helps some and I'll try and continue updating as this method unfolds and I follow the Elliots on the Eur and Gbp. Thanks for sharing.
Here is the latest on the AudUsd using FiboLoki's AP technique.
I do find it amazing how accurately APs corral the price action into decernable moves.
I have a projected Long now at .9572 before reversing to .9503. We'll see how accurately the trend follows, though remember - any external influence such as Fundies can alter the target to another cross point. But the UM of the AP should hold as the Resistance to the Up move.
Here is the completion of that move on the Euro as expected and then some. You can see it hit my 'cross' target and continued up to the UM of the AP of the larger move.
I was only looking for a 127 fib retracement of the preceeding wave, but luckily we got to see a full 168.7 with rejection, Possibly looking at shorts for the begining of next week and a corrective pull back before moving higher. If this pair is traveling in tandem still with the Gbp this should be the completion of the first wave on the Wave 3 move up. A retracement now is in order before move higher.
FiboLoki explains it all (AP theory and I)
Linear Mode
